Expired50% confidenceBenchmarkExact time
The model has an 89% probability of finding the correct evidence, but only a 20% probability of turning it into a verifiable product assertion; 71% of features ultimately had no verified capability description, and the workflow recovery rate was only 18%.
1
Sources
50%
Confidence
Short-term (~14 days)
Relevance
10/13/2026
First Seen
This claim has expired. It is kept for the record and no longer describes the current state.
Valid until: 10/27/2026(expired)
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Related Claims
UnverifiedA confidence score given by a model (e.g., 90%) should not be interpreted as 'the model is correct 90% of the time'; accuracy must be empirically measured using your own samples.74% similarUnverifiedIn a test of 12 models across 112 questions, when faced with a "Are you sure?" challenge, models had a 94.4% probability of maintaining their original correct answer.73% similarUnverifiedThe probability reported by a model (e.g., 90%) refers to the model's confidence in its own classification judgment and has nothing to do with business urgency.73% similarUnverified校准的不确定性区间意味着：若模型声称 90% 置信区间为某范围，则在大量测试样本中约 90% 的真实值应落入该范围。72% similarUnverifiedRanked by question difficulty, persistence rate was 91.4% on the 60 questions that all models answered correctly, but only 73.5% on the 52 questions that at least one model got wrong, indicating that sycophancy tracks uncertainty.72% similar
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