Unverified50% confidenceFactExact time
When 17 of 20 trials pass, the point-estimate pass rate is 0.85, but the lower bound of the Wilson 95% confidence interval is about 0.62.
1
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50%
Confidence
Long-term
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10/17/2026
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Related Claims
UnverifiedUnder the condition of n=100 with an even split of positive and negative samples, the 95% confidence interval for 55% accuracy is roughly 45%–65%, which covers the 50% baseline, so the 5 percentage point gap may be random fluctuation.75% similarUnverifiedWith a sample size of 112 questions, the 95% confidence interval near 0.95 is approximately ±4 points, making it impossible to distinguish between scores of 0.94 and 0.92.75% similarVerifiedThe 95% Wilson confidence interval is more accurate than the normal approximation (Wald interval) when sample sizes are small or when proportions are close to 0 or 1.74% similarUnverifiedDuring testing, cases emerged where a model claimed 95% confidence in a move but scored 0 points according to the evaluation criteria.74% similarUnverifiedThe accuracy data in the test has an error margin of approximately ±8–10 percentage points at n=100 sample size (based on a 95% confidence-level binomial confidence interval).73% similar
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