Unverified50% confidenceFactExact time
在8个模型均随机猜测的假设下，单次二元预测中至少有一个押中的概率约99.6%
1
Sources
50%
Confidence
Long-term
Relevance
7/21/2026
First Seen
Sources
Related Claims
Unverified一个随机猜测的模型在单次二元预测中有50%的概率押中84% similarUnverified置换检验通过大量随机置换（通常1000到10000次）构建零假设下的经验分布来估计p值，无需参数假设但计算成本相对较高73% similarUnverifiedAUC equals the probability that, when one positive sample and one negative sample are randomly drawn from all positive and negative samples respectively, the predicted score of the positive sample is higher than that of the negative sample.72% similarUnverified对于概率为10⁻⁶甚至更低的极端事件，蒙特卡洛方法要在随机采样中捕捉到一次，理论上需要百万至十亿次以上的独立模拟71% similarUnverified马尔可夫头仅需记录前一个token状态即可推导下一token修正概率，参数量通常不超过原模型的0.1%71% similar
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