Expired50% confidenceOpinionExact time
Pullen cited empirical analysis to speculate that Sonnet may fall in the MoE range of approximately 1.3 to 1.5 trillion total parameters with over 10 billion active parameters, and Opus at approximately 1.5 to 1.8 trillion total parameters with 15 billion active parameters.
1
Sources
50%
Confidence
Medium-term (~90 days)
Relevance
7/22/2026
First Seen
This claim has expired. It is kept for the record and no longer describes the current state.
Valid until: 10/20/2026(expired)
Sources
Related Claims
UnverifiedDeepSeek's flagship version has approximately 1.6 trillion total parameters and 49 billion activated parameters; the lightweight Flash version has 284 billion total parameters and 13 billion activated parameters, supports a context window of 1 million tokens, and is open-sourced under the MIT license.60% similarUnverifiedAlibaba's Qwen3 has approximately 2.4 trillion parameters, is about to be released and open-sourced, and the full-weight Max preview version is already online.60% similarUnverifiedMeta's Llama 3 has up to 405 billion parameters.57% similarUnverifiedMeta's open-source Llama series can run models with parameter counts ranging from 7 billion to 70 billion on consumer-grade graphics cards.56% similar
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