Unverified50% confidenceFactExact time
2016年大选中绝大多数民调未能预测特朗普在中西部'蓝墙州'的胜利
1
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50%
Confidence
Long-term
Relevance
8/26/2026
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Related Claims
UnverifiedIn the 2016 U.S. presidential election, the national-level polling average error was approximately 2 percentage points; Hillary Clinton won the national popular vote, and the problems were mainly found in state-level polls in Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania, which underestimated the turnout of white voters without a college degree.65% similarUnverifiedIn the 2020 election, polls correctly predicted the presidential winner, but the average polling error expanded to approximately 4 percentage points.58% similar
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