Unverified60% confidenceFactExact time
A 2023 Stanford study pointed out that the so-called emergent abilities may be a statistical artifact caused by the choice of evaluation metrics.
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60%
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Long-term
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8/27/2026
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UnverifiedIn the Stanford report, this gap figure fluctuates over time: the original 2025 paper gave 13%, about 16% in February 2026, and 19% currently, and the authors acknowledge that part of the reason is that new data and estimates are more sensitive to setting choices.73% similarUnverified斯坦福大学2023年的研究表明，主流AI检测工具误判率可高达20%以上68% similarUnverifiedThe author believes that recently the smarter models follow instructions better than humans do, and that the industry's standard for tolerance of probabilistic answers will change in the next two or three years.68% similarUnverifiedThe remaining 8.5% deviation is amplified when involving billions of samples, and minor systematic biases may cause simulation conclusions to diverge significantly from reality; therefore, such simulations are better suited for trend prediction and relative comparison rather than absolutely precise numerical forecasts.68% similarVerifiedA 2023 Stanford University study showed that top LLMs have factual error rates as high as 20–40% in the medical and legal domains.68% similar
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