Unverified50% confidenceDecision RuleExact time
When a well-calibrated person says 'I am 70% confident,' the actual success rate of such judgments should be close to 70%.
1
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50%
Confidence
Long-term
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9/7/2026
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UnverifiedA perfectly calibrated model achieves an accuracy of exactly 70% across all predictions for which it claims 70% confidence.78% similarUnverified研究表明人类评估者在判断LLM输出的事实准确性时，正确率往往只有50%-70%75% similarUnverified挂载方案在70%的场景中产出了更受青睐的答案73% similarUnverifiedResearch shows that when humans assign 90% confidence, their actual accuracy rate is often only around 70%, indicating a systematic overconfidence72% similarUnverifiedIn a well-calibrated model, an output score of 0.8 should statistically correspond to an actual accuracy of 80%.69% similar
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