Unverified50% confidenceOpinionExact time
The gap between frontier closed-source models and open models is narrowing and may now be less than three months.
1
Sources
50%
Confidence
Medium-term (~90 days)
Relevance
9/12/2026
First Seen
Valid until: 12/11/2026
Sources
Related Entities
Related Claims
UnverifiedThere is typically a half-generation to one-generation capability gap between the strongest open-source models and closed-source models, a gap that is narrowing but has not yet been eliminated.75% similarUnverifiedThe capabilities of open-source models (such as the Llama series) have significantly narrowed the gap with commercial models.70% similarUnverifiedMozilla's State of Open Source AI report, based on Chatbot Arena data, shows that the average capability gap between open-weight models and closed-source models has narrowed to 3.3%, significantly down from 8.04% in January 2024.68% similarUnverifiedLocal models currently lag behind the top closed-source models in terms of performance.66% similarUnverifiedThe capability gap between local models and cloud-based models is narrowing rapidly.64% similar
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