Unverified50% confidenceFactExact time
LLMs themselves suffer from overconfidence issues and may produce incorrect answers with extremely high fluency.
1
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50%
Confidence
Long-term
Relevance
9/30/2026
First Seen
Sources
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Related Claims
Unverified多数LLM的自报置信度存在过度自信问题，使用前需进行温度缩放等校准处理79% similarUnverifiedThe overconfidence of a model answering directly while skipping retrieval is technically referred to as miscalibration, meaning there is a systematic deviation between confidence and actual accuracy.75% similarVerifiedLLMs have a hallucination problem, in which they generate factually incorrect information with high confidence.73% similarUnverifiedLLMs may fabricate plausible-sounding interpretations when lacking exact evidence (hallucinations), which is fatal in rigorous historical scholarship.72% similar
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