Kalshi
A regulated prediction market exchange operating under oversight of the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). It allows users to trade contracts whose outcomes are tied to future events, and is among the first prediction market platforms in the United States to receive regulatory approval.
Timeline (last 90 days)
The most well-known prediction market platforms in the United States include Kalshi and Polymarket.
Kalshi offers trading on outcomes such as political and economic events in the form of "event contracts," and argues that its products are federally regulated financial derivatives rather than gambling.
The US state of Utah has filed 14 criminal charges against prediction market platform Kalshi and its CEO Tarek Mansour and COO Luana Lopes Lara, 12 of which involve illegal promotion of online gambling.
The personal criminal liability facing Kalshi executives means the risk extends from the company level to individuals, which may affect its financing, partnerships, and pace of market expansion.
Utah has chosen criminal prosecution rather than civil regulatory action, highlighting the state government's direct challenge to that position; if the state-level criminal charges hold, it will provide a precedent for other states to follow.
Kalshi argues for federal preemption, i.e., that financial products approved by the CFTC should not be subject to state gambling laws, but this argument has not yet been clearly settled by case law in the context of criminal charges.
Event contracts are binary-option-style contracts whose underlying is the outcome of a specific event; users buy "yes" or "no" shares at a price, and once the event outcome is determined, each contract pays $1 for the correct direction and zero for the wrong direction.
The NBA reached a "priority" partnership agreement with prediction market platforms Kalshi and Polymarket.
The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has a regulatory framework for prediction market platforms such as Kalshi, attempting to draw a boundary between information efficiency and market integrity, but to date there is still no clear consensus.
Polymarket operates on a blockchain (the Polygon network), while Kalshi is a compliant exchange regulated by the U.S. CFTC.
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All Facts (17)
Kalshi是受CFTC监管的合规预测市场，而PolyMarket运行在区块链上，主要面向美国以外用户
85%UnverifiedThe most well-known prediction market platforms in the United States include Kalshi and Polymarket.
50%UnverifiedKalshi offers trading on outcomes such as political and economic events in the form of "event contracts," and argues that its products are federally regulated financial derivatives rather than gambling.
50%UnverifiedEvent contracts are binary-option-style contracts whose underlying is the outcome of a specific event; users buy "yes" or "no" shares at a price, and once the event outcome is determined, each contract pays $1 for the correct direction and zero for the wrong direction.
50%UnverifiedKalshi argues for federal preemption, i.e., that financial products approved by the CFTC should not be subject to state gambling laws, but this argument has not yet been clearly settled by case law in the context of criminal charges.
50%UnverifiedUtah has chosen criminal prosecution rather than civil regulatory action, highlighting the state government's direct challenge to that position; if the state-level criminal charges hold, it will provide a precedent for other states to follow.
50%UnverifiedThe personal criminal liability facing Kalshi executives means the risk extends from the company level to individuals, which may affect its financing, partnerships, and pace of market expansion.
50%UnverifiedThe U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has a regulatory framework for prediction market platforms such as Kalshi, attempting to draw a boundary between information efficiency and market integrity, but to date there is still no clear consensus.
50%UnverifiedPolymarket operates on a blockchain (the Polygon network), while Kalshi is a compliant exchange regulated by the U.S. CFTC.
50%UnverifiedThe product Polymind is an AI market analyzer targeting traders on prediction market platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket.
50%UnverifiedKalshi is a CFTC-regulated prediction market platform that obtained DCM status in 2021, making it the first platform in the United States to receive federal-level regulatory approval to legally operate event contract trading.
50%UnverifiedKalshi obtained the CFTC's Designated Contract Market (DCM) designation in 2021, becoming the first platform in the United States to receive federal-level regulatory approval to legally operate event contract trading.
50%UnverifiedKalshi is a prediction market platform regulated by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), where users can place bets on the outcomes of various future events.
50%UnverifiedThe US state of Utah has filed 14 criminal charges against prediction market platform Kalshi and its CEO Tarek Mansour and COO Luana Lopes Lara, 12 of which involve illegal promotion of online gambling.
50%UnverifiedThe NBA reached a "priority" partnership agreement with prediction market platforms Kalshi and Polymarket.
50%UnverifiedA developer created an open-source project that has three decision models — OpenAI Decisions API, TypeSafe's Jev, and Cloudflare's Clef — predict future events given the same evidence, and compares their outputs against real-time prices from Polymarket and Kalshi.
50%UnverifiedThe CFTC attempted to block Kalshi from listing U.S. congressional election contracts in 2023, and the two parties went to federal court; Kalshi prevailed legally in 2024 and began offering election-related contracts.
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