Anthropic Races Toward the Largest IPO in History: Can a $100 Billion Raise Ignite the AI Investment Boom?

$100 Billion Raise: Anthropic's IPO Is in the Final Countdown

According to Caillianshe reports, AI giant Anthropic is accelerating its listing process and could publicly file its prospectus as early as October 23, making a final sprint toward an official listing in November. The market had previously expected its fundraising size to reach as much as $100 billion, with a valuation of up to $2 trillion, which would potentially break the record set by SpaceX in June and become the largest IPO in history.

This news adds yet more fuel to an already hot AI investment track. If it comes to pass, Anthropic will not only be the largest public listing case in the AI field to date, but may also become a new coordinate for the capital narrative of the entire tech industry.

IPO (Initial Public Offering) is the process by which a company sells shares to the public for the first time and transforms from a private company into a publicly listed company. It usually involves submitting a prospectus (an S-1 filing in the United States) to regulators (the SEC in the U.S.) and conducting a roadshow to solicit pricing. For a highly valued, still-private AI company like Anthropic, an IPO is both a means of financing and the main channel for early employees and investors to achieve liquidity. The "publicly file its prospectus" mentioned in the article refers to the public disclosure of the S-1 filing, based on which the market can see complete financial data for the first time; after that, it still needs to go through pricing, roadshow subscription, and other steps before officially listing and trading.

Valuation refers to the market's estimate of a company's overall value. At the pre-listing stage, it is mainly inferred based on primary-market financing prices and comparable companies, so it is highly flexible. The difference between "$2 trillion" and "$1.5 trillion" in the article is essentially a difference in assumptions about future revenue growth and profit margins, rather than a direct mapping of current financial data. It should be noted that valuation and fundraising amount are two concepts: valuation is the company's total value, while the fundraising amount is the scale of funds raised by issuing new shares this time.

High Revenue Growth Coexists With Growth Concerns

Anthropic's financial performance shows clear two-sidedness. Third-quarter revenue reached $16.8 billion, surging nearly 50% quarter over quarter, and the company achieved adjusted profitability—for an AI company still in a period of rapid expansion, such results are impressive.

However, as monthly growth slowed, some investors' expectations began to loosen. Some views have lowered the valuation expectation from $2 trillion to around $1.5 trillion. This divergence precisely reflects the deep anxiety in the current market about the valuation logic of AI companies: whether high growth can continue, and whether profit quality can withstand public-market scrutiny.

Adjusted profitability usually refers to a profit metric obtained by excluding items such as stock-based compensation, one-time expenses, and restructuring costs from GAAP net profit. Tech companies generally emphasize this metric during the IPO stage because large stock-based compensation significantly depresses book profit but does not reflect cash outflow. When reading a prospectus, investors should also pay attention to GAAP net profit, operating cash flow, and free cash flow to judge whether profitability comes from the main business or from accounting adjustments. For AI companies in a period of rapid expansion, compute procurement and R&D investment often cause cash flow to diverge from adjusted profit.

Quarter-over-quarter growth refers to the growth rate of the current quarter relative to the previous quarter. Compared with year-over-year growth, it is more sensitive to short-term momentum. The article's statement that revenue "surging nearly 50% quarter over quarter" shows rapid quarter-to-quarter expansion, while "monthly growth slowing" is a finer-grained observation—quarterly growth remains high, but month-by-month momentum is weakening, which may mean the base is rising or customer growth is approaching a temporary bottleneck. This is precisely the direct trigger for the valuation expectation being lowered from $2 trillion to $1.5 trillion: public markets have far less tolerance for growth inflection points than primary markets.

Market Sentiment Behind the Valuation Divergence

The valuation downgrade is not an isolated event. Against the backdrop of an overall cooling AI listing wave, Anthropic's IPO has been given significance beyond the individual company—it will become the ultimate touchstone for testing market confidence in the AI industry.

If the $100 billion fundraising target is successfully achieved, it will prove that public markets are willing to pay a premium for AI infrastructure-level companies; conversely, if subscriptions are insufficient or post-listing performance is weak, it could trigger a valuation re-rating across the entire AI sector. Investors need to make a judgment between the "scarcity premium" and the "risk of slowing growth."

The cooling AI listing wave is set against the background of a primary-market financing boom driven by generative AI since 2023, but AI-related IPOs in the public market during the same period have shown clear divergence: some infrastructure and chip companies have received high premiums, while application-layer companies often broke issue price because of unclear commercialization paths. The scarcity premium refers to the premium that funds are willing to pay above intrinsic value when there are few investable high-quality comparable targets on the market. If Anthropic becomes one of the few publicly tradable leading large-model companies, it may enjoy this premium in the short term; but the premium depends on sentiment rather than fundamentals. Once similar companies list one after another or growth is disproven, the premium will quickly converge. This is also why insufficient subscriptions could trigger a sector-wide valuation re-rating.

A Critical Battle: Not Just Anthropic's Last Stand

For Anthropic, this IPO is a last stand; for the broader AI industry, it is more like a referendum on confidence. Whether the current AI investment boom can continue depends to a large extent on whether capital markets are willing to continue paying real money for the "AI narrative that has not yet been fully realized."

Some investors have already lowered their valuation expectations to around $1.5 trillion. This number itself is not low, but the pullback from the peak expectation reveals that the market is shifting from frenzy to prudence. Anthropic's listing performance will directly affect the pace of subsequent AI company listings and the financing environment.

Conclusion: A Watershed in the AI Capital Narrative

Anthropic's IPO process has entered the sprint stage. The $100 billion fundraising and trillion-dollar valuation are both an honor and pressure. Signals of high revenue growth and slowing growth exist at the same time, and market sentiment swings between optimism and caution. Regardless of the final outcome, this listing will write a key footnote in the capital narrative of the AI industry—whether the investment boom can continue, the answer is about to be revealed.