Unverified50% confidenceDecision RuleExact time
The author recommends designing the Agent's confidence threshold as follows: execute autonomously above 90%, present an intermediate state for user confirmation between 60% and 90%, and below 60% forcibly acknowledge uncertainty without guessing.
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50%
Confidence
Long-term
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9/11/2026
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UnverifiedResearch shows that when humans assign 90% confidence, their actual accuracy rate is often only around 70%, indicating a systematic overconfidence73% similarUnverified讲者认为评估AI编程代理应关注80%、90%、99%成功率下的数据而非常被引用的50%成功率版本，因为99%才意味着可信赖并委托给模型72% similarUnverifiedPrecision bias refers to the tendency for people to assign higher credibility to statements containing precise numbers; experiments show that subjects rated the credibility of "41.3%" significantly higher than "approximately 40%".71% similarVerifiedIf the probability of the AI making a correct decision is 90%, blindly following the AI's decisions 10 times in a row yields a final accuracy rate of only approximately 35% (0.9 to the power of 10).67% similarUnverified模板匹配的置信度阈值通常取0.8～0.95来判断是否找到目标67% similar
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