Verified75% confidenceFactExact time
Model calibration is defined in statistics as: if a model claims a certain answer has 70% confidence, then the actual proportion of correct answers among a large number of such claims should be close to 70%.
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75%
Confidence
Long-term
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9/12/2026
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Related Claims
UnverifiedCalibrated confidence refers to the consistency between the confidence value output by a model and the actual accuracy rate; a well-calibrated model that claims 80% confidence should have an actual accuracy rate close to 80%.79% similarUnverifiedA "well-calibrated" probability judgment means that when a model says something has a 70% chance of occurring, the actual occurrence rate of that event across many similar predictions is close to 70%.76% similarUnverifiedPrecision refers to the proportion of samples the model identifies as positive that are truly positive; recall refers to the proportion of all true positives that the model successfully identifies; the two typically have an inverse relationship.74% similarVerifiedA perfectly calibrated model achieves an accuracy of exactly 70% across all predictions for which it claims 70% confidence.73% similarUnverifiedMany models still exhibit high confidence in incorrect answers, presenting a confidence calibration problem.71% similar
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