Verified65% confidenceFactExact time
A "well-calibrated" probability judgment means that when a model says something has a 70% chance of occurring, the actual occurrence rate of that event across many similar predictions is close to 70%.
3
Sources
65%
Confidence
Long-term
Relevance
9/23/2026
First Seen
Sources
Related Entities
Related Claims
UnverifiedThe probability reported by a model (e.g., 90%) refers to the model's confidence in its own classification judgment and has nothing to do with business urgency.77% similarVerifiedA perfectly calibrated model achieves an accuracy of exactly 70% across all predictions for which it claims 70% confidence.76% similarVerifiedModel calibration is defined in statistics as: if a model claims a certain answer has 70% confidence, then the actual proportion of correct answers among a large number of such claims should be close to 70%.76% similarVerifiedCalibrated confidence means that when the system gives a score of 0.9, the probability of being correct should be close to 90%.74% similarUnverified在8个模型均随机猜测的假设下，单次二元预测中至少有一个押中的概率约99.6%72% similar
Cite This Claim
Stable URI
https://kongchang.com/claim/943258API
curl https://kongchang.com/api/v1/knowledge/claims/943258MCP
get_claim(id=943258)