Unverified50% confidenceOpinionExact time
The conflict escalation chain proposed by Paine: bilateral miscalculation in a civil war → third-party intervention → war escalates into regional and potentially global risk → the winning side overreaches past the culminating point of victory → a third party is triggered to intervene again → the conflict spirals further out of control.
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Long-term
Relevance
9/30/2026
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