Subseasonal Forecasting
Forecasting on a time scale between medium-range weather forecasting and seasonal climate prediction, generally referring to the coming two weeks to two months. Its sources of predictability combine characteristics of both initial conditions and boundary forcing.
Timeline (last 90 days)
Subseasonal forecasting is the timescale between medium-range weather forecasting (within about two weeks) and seasonal climate prediction (more than one month), and the international academic community usually defines it as the coming 2 weeks to 2 months.
There is still a distance from paper publication to operational application; evaluation of subseasonal forecasting requires years of rolling verification, and the robustness of models across different seasons and regions remains to be tested.
The 2-6 week subseasonal timescale is recognized by the meteorological community as the "forecast desert" and is a recognized difficulty in international meteorological research.
The meteorological community typically divides forecasts by timescale into three categories: medium-range weather forecasting (about 0-15 days), subseasonal forecasting (about 15 days to 60 days), and seasonal climate prediction (months to more than a year).
There is still a distance from research breakthroughs to operational deployment, and models need to be extensively validated in different seasons and different regions, while forecast uncertainty also needs to be clearly quantified and communicated to end users.
Traditional numerical models often can only give 'skill-less' forecasts close to the climatological mean state in the 2-6 week subseasonal time window.
All Facts (6)
Subseasonal forecasting is the timescale between medium-range weather forecasting (within about two weeks) and seasonal climate prediction (more than one month), and the international academic community usually defines it as the coming 2 weeks to 2 months.
50%UnverifiedThere is still a distance from paper publication to operational application; evaluation of subseasonal forecasting requires years of rolling verification, and the robustness of models across different seasons and regions remains to be tested.
50%UnverifiedThe 2-6 week subseasonal timescale is recognized by the meteorological community as the "forecast desert" and is a recognized difficulty in international meteorological research.
50%UnverifiedThe meteorological community typically divides forecasts by timescale into three categories: medium-range weather forecasting (about 0-15 days), subseasonal forecasting (about 15 days to 60 days), and seasonal climate prediction (months to more than a year).
50%UnverifiedThere is still a distance from research breakthroughs to operational deployment, and models need to be extensively validated in different seasons and different regions, while forecast uncertainty also needs to be clearly quantified and communicated to end users.
50%UnverifiedTraditional numerical models often can only give 'skill-less' forecasts close to the climatological mean state in the 2-6 week subseasonal time window.
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