Unverified50% confidenceConceptExact time
Calibration refers to the degree of agreement between the probabilities reported by a forecasting system over long-term use and the actual frequency of occurrence, for example, across all judgments given with 0.7 confidence, the actual accuracy rate comes out to about 70%.
1
Sources
50%
Confidence
Long-term
Relevance
10/15/2026
First Seen
Sources
Related Entities
Related Claims
VerifiedA "well-calibrated" probability judgment means that when a model says something has a 70% chance of occurring, the actual occurrence rate of that event across many similar predictions is close to 70%.78% similarVerifiedModel calibration is defined in statistics as: if a model claims a certain answer has 70% confidence, then the actual proportion of correct answers among a large number of such claims should be close to 70%.77% similarUnverifiedCalibration refers to a judge who is 70% confident in 100 events having approximately 70 of those events actually occur, in which case the judge is said to be well-calibrated.77% similarUnverifiedCalibrated confidence refers to the consistency between the confidence value output by a model and the actual accuracy rate; a well-calibrated model that claims 80% confidence should have an actual accuracy rate close to 80%.69% similarVerifiedCalibrated confidence means that when the system gives a score of 0.9, the probability of being correct should be close to 90%.68% similar
Cite This Claim
Stable URI
https://kongchang.com/claim/1037012API
curl https://kongchang.com/api/v1/knowledge/claims/1037012MCP
get_claim(id=1037012)